The UNREAL climate change thread

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu May 10, 2012 8:56 am

OK--here is the new graph from Doctor Roy, which shows a temperature rise for the 2nd month in a row. In Dr. Roy's words:

"... the most common reason for large month-to-month swings in global average temperature is small fluctuations in the rate of convective overturning of the troposphere."


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu May 10, 2012 9:05 am

There is an interesting article in the Washington Post today, comparing greenhouse gases from automobile emissions to similar emissions from cows (it seems the cows emit twice as much).

This calls to mind Secretary James Watt's statement from back in the '70s, when he noted that trees emit more carbon dioxide than cars (this happens when they decay--it's like fossil fuels burning). He was vilified for saying that, even though it is true.

This should, of course, be considered in the context of the carboniferous age, when there was much more vegetation on the planet, and consequently much more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (in fact, the CO2 concentration was about 20 times higher than today). Our modern-day burning of fossil fuels (which were formed during the carboniferous age) is similar to the decay process that produced the high CO2 levels during the carboniferous age--it's all just oxidation, whether by decay or burning.

It's curious that all the CO2 failed to prevent ice ages, which occurred in spite of the high CO2 concentrations. scratch

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Jun 07, 2012 8:47 am

Just so y'all will know, the global temperature anomaly for May was +0.29 degrees, compared to +0.30 degrees in April.

It's not worth posting the graph, because 0.29 and 0.30 look the same on that low-rez scale. geek

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Jun 14, 2012 12:22 pm

Oops--the Arctic ice was back to normal in April, but now it's dropped below the 2007 level. scratch


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:16 pm


Arrow

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Jul 25, 2012 1:38 pm

An interesting graphic here from an advocate of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):



Assuming that more ice equates to good news (and IPCC advocates seem to consider ice to be a good thing), the advocate seems to suggest that "denialists" are happy when they see good news, and unhappy when they see bad news. Is this not as it should be?

The graphic also seems to suggest that the advocate is irritated by good news and gleeful in response to bad news. Does that make sense?

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Jul 29, 2012 12:01 pm

Right now the ice extent is the same as it was at this time in 2007, which was not a good year, if you like ice:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:49 am

Here is another way of looking at the ice melt--sea level over the last 800 years. The period 1000-1200 AD is known as the "Medieval Climate Optimum," so the delayed effect of the warmth (and ice melt) was about a 12" rise in sea level by 1200 AD.

By 1200 it was actually rapidly turning cold (which put an end to the age of Viking exploration), with sea level dropping as all those glaciers formed during the "little ice age" in the 16th-18th centuries--the delayed effect being a big drop in sea level by 1800.

With the glaciers formed during the little ice age getting smaller and smaller, the oceans have returned to 16th century levels, and could go higher.

Looks like--if the ocean returns to 1200 AD levels--they'll have to add 8 inches to the sea walls in Venice and the Netherlands.


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:00 am

Arctic and Antarctic ice compared--The Arctic is right at the 2007 level, while the Antarctic is slightly higher than the 1979-2000 average (the Antarctic gets less attention for some reason, even though it's just as important as the Arctic):


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:00 am

There have been many alarming reports about drought conditions and grim crop-yield predictions.

Scary stuff, here:




The price of corn is going to sky rocket, which will make the price of breakfast cereal and sugar go up:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:03 am

Curiously, the bad news is mostly localized to the 48 contiguous United States. Globally, the temperature anomaly dropped a little from J to July, and the year looks fairly normal, temperature-wise:




And if we look at sea-surface temperatures, it almost looks cool geek


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:17 am

All that other stuff notwithstanding, this graph has lots of folks predicting that the northern ice cap this year shrink even smaller than 2007:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:18 am

Or, you could look at it this way:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:21 am

As predicted, it has happened--the arctic ice coverage has dropped below the 2007 level (this even made it into the morning paper):


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:32 am

Fun fact: the two worst green-house gases are oxygen and water vapor.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Sun Sep 02, 2012 2:10 pm

As Ronneberg lit the fuses, Kayser counted to 10 before ordering the two civilians to run upstairs as fast as they could. The raiders then rushed out of the steel cellar door into the night. When they were no more than 20 yards away they heard the dull thud of the explosion. The sound was muffled by the noise of the power station and the thick concrete walls, and the covering party wondered whether the demolition party had laid the charges properly. But Ronneberg knew from the sound that the cylinders had been destroyed and that 3,000 pounds of heavy water—about four or five months' production—would be awash on the basement floor, flowing towards the drains.

Unknown to the saboteurs, the sound of a dull thud was not uncommon to those who worked or lived at the Vemork installation. Small, harmless explosions in the combustion machinery would occasionally be heard, while cracking ice or a heavy collapse of thawing snow somewhere along the steep slopes could also generate a similar noise. "The explosion itself was not very loud," recalled Poulsson. "It sounded like two or three cars crashing in Piccadilly Circus."

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:39 am

Dr. Roy's monthly update--temps about like 2003-2006:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:28 am

I wish this was bigger, but it's not. Neutral

We see too things here:

2. Warm weather makes CO2 go up (this is a no-brainer, actually, because CO2 goes up every summer and down every winter:

3. CO2 does not appear to make temperature go up. The most dramatic CO2 increase in history is taking place right now--from 280 ppm to way over 300ppm in just a few decades--and the temperature is completely ignoring the CO2 level.



Edit: Up every summer, that is, and down every winter. geek


Last edited by pinhedz on Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:36 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:19 am

The Russians think that the ices ages are caused by the Milankovitch cycle, which is complicated. It has to do with the eccentricity and obliquity of the earth's orbit, and the angle of precession of the earth's axis. geek

That's three different cycles with periods that don't match, ranging from 20,000 to 100,000 years (k.y. stands for "kiloyears" Rolling Eyes ). All I know is the the ice age comes back every 100,000 years.






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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:29 am

Anyways, it appears that the Russians (who collected historical temperature data and determined past CO2 concentrations based on their study of ice-cores extracted from Antarctica by the crew at the Vostok base) have put those cycles all together and come up with a cycle that closely matches the temperature record.

I'm gonna have to study this more carefully--what the heck are "benthic forams?" scratch


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:00 am

Call me a pinhed, but I just love this stuff--I eat this stuff up with a spoon. Very Happy

I mean, this stuff is like cocaine for pinhedz


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:01 am

Discuss bom

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Sep 17, 2012 7:07 am

Can we conclude anything about the effect of CO2 concentration on temperature?

Today: CO2 -- 300-400 parts per mil. / Temperature -- on the cool side compared to the last 600 million years

Carboniferous Ice Age: CO2 -- 500 parts per mil. / Temperature -- Ice age like

Permian Pangea Hothouse: CO2 -- 500 parts per mil. / Temperature -- Hotter than blazes affraid

Ordovician/Silurain Ice Age: CO2 -- 4,500 parts per mil. / Temperature -- Super-cold ice age

"Snowball Earth" era: CO2 -- 6,700 parts per mil. / Temperatures undetermined, but cold

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:17 pm

Can the Milankovitch cycles be used to predict future weather? I had hoped so, but Wiki has a problem with that (see below). Neutral

But I do want to say for the record that the pinhed considers Archer and Ganopolski (cited by Wiki) to be full of beans. bounce How can they say carbon emissions will keep us from freezing for the next 500,000 years, when CO2 concentrations between 4,500 and 6,500 ppm didn't keep the planet from freezing solid in the past?

That said, here's the Wiki story:

"It is sometimes asserted that the length of the current interglacial temperature peak will be similar to the length of the preceding interglacial peak (Sangamonian/Eem Stage), and that therefore we might be nearing the end of this warm period. However, this conclusion is probably mistaken: the lengths of previous interglacials were not particularly regular (see graphic below). Berger and Loutre (2002) argue that “with or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun.”[1] Also, Archer and Ganopolski (2005) report that probable future CO2 emissions may be enough to suppress the glacial cycle for the next 500 kyr.[2]"

"Note in the graphic the strong 100,000 year periodicity of the cycles, and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry is believed to result from complex interactions of feedback mechanisms. It has been observed that ice ages deepen by progressive steps, but the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in one big step."



"Ice core data. Note length of glacial cycles averages ~100,000 years. Blue curve is temperature, green curve is CO2, and red curve is windblown glacial dust (loess). Today's date is on the left side of the graph."

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:35 pm

If ever anybody is feeling pinheded--check this out (wall to wall pinhedz in the "comment section" Razz ): http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/23/ice-ages-and-sea-level/

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

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