The UNREAL climate change thread

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Sat Sep 24, 2016 10:13 am

Gowron wrote:

(yes, i was duped into picking Houston, thinking they might have a shot against a rookie 3rd string quarterback in his first game. like Donald Dump said there is a sucker begotten every moment)



Laughing
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:03 am

White House wrote:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/21/presidential-memorandum-climate-change-and-national-security


o gorsh ... i hope this doesn't mean tinhed is a traitor ... gulp (o gorsh)
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:54 am

Yakima Canutt wrote:o gorsh ... i hope this doesn't mean tinhed is a traitor ... gulp (o gorsh)
Don't worry--That's the lame duck White house talking.

Hillary dropped climate change from her shtick the day after Bernie endorsed her, so I'll be perfectly safe after the election. Cool
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Sep 25, 2016 2:19 pm

(d) This memorandum is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

BARACK OBAMA


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:31 am


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:45 am

pinhedz wrote:
stabilization at today’s greenhouse gas levels may already commit Earth to an eventual total warming of 5 degrees Celsius (range 3 to 7 degrees Celsius, 95 per cent credible interval) over the next few millennia as ice sheets, vegetation, and atmospheric dust continue to respond to global warming.

not so fast

Chuffy's Take
Chuffy Gomez

Snyder's new record shows that the planet was getting slowly but progressively colder for the first million years or so. But by 1.2 million years ago, the cooling trend began to slow down. After it flattened out, the overall global average temperature has remained stable through to the present, even as glacial cycles caused lots of fluctuations around that average.

The analysis can't separate cause and effect, so there are a number of possibilities here. One is simply that some external cause changed both the overall trend and the length of the glacial cycles. It's possible, however, that it simply became too cold for the 40,000 year cycle to register.

If the paper had stopped there, everyone seems to agree that it might be a valuable contribution to the field. But Snyder went on to analyze how global temperatures compared to atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide over that period, using that to calculate what she termed the climate's sensitivity to greenhouse gasses. The IPCC's best estimate is that we'd see about a 3°C increase if carbon dioxide were doubled. Snyder's calculation comes up with a value that's much, much higher—at 9°C per doubling. That would mean that our current emissions have already committed us to radical changes.

The good news is that's probably not right.

We talked to Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Penn State's Richard Alley. Both agreed that the reconstruction itself was significant. Schmidt said it probably deserved to be in a high-profile publication, and Alley said it "may prove to be of wide value." Still, both of them pointed out issues with the sensitivity analysis.

The problem is that glacial cycles are triggered by changes in sunlight caused by orbital forcings. This triggers changes in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but it also triggers changes in everything from ocean levels and atmospheric dust to the amount of sunlight that hits highly reflective ice when it reaches the Earth. All of this affects the global temperature significantly. But, for the purposes of this analysis, Snyder only compared the temperature and CO2, ensuring that all these other impacts were ascribed to that gas.

"This assumes that all of the temperature change over the ice-age cycles arose from the greenhouse-gas change," Alley told Ars. "But, we have high confidence that the ice ages were driven by features of Earth’s orbit and that the temperature would have changed (just not as much) if the greenhouse-gas forcing had not changed." Alley went on to say that "the 'sensitivity' calculated in the new paper is an upper limit, because we know that some of the temperature change was not caused by greenhouse gases."

Schmidt, for his part, focused on the consequences of what would happen if this sensitivity were right. "If I move the CO2 levels today to glacial levels—180 [parts-per-million]—would I get an ice sheet the size of what we had at the height of the last glacial maximum?" he asked. "And the answer has to be no. The forcing is too small in the places where the ice would grow for that to happen."

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:45 am

The Anthropogenic Global Warming Enthusiasts (AGWE) were PRAYING that the North Pole would be open ocean this Sepember--or that at least the sea-ice extent would reach an all-time low.

They were holding prayer meetings, praying the rosary and novenas, asking the Good Lord to PLEASE melt the ice and vanguish the persecutors and calumniators of the AGWEs. Neutral  

The pinhed hates to be the bearer of bad news, but--not only did the ice not hit an all-time low--the rate of expansion expansion of the ice this September has hit an All-TIME HIGH! What a Face cheers



Sorry AGWEs, maybe next year. Razz
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:39 am


pinhedz wrote:https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/265895292191248385
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:35 am






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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:27 am

pinhedz wrote:




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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Oct 09, 2016 8:12 am

If I lived 18 inches above sea level, I'd be nervous, too. affraid

We must help those poor islanders--send them more power-point presentations quickly. bounce
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:03 am

A pinhed, looking at Yakima's cartoon, would be inclined to say "Wait a minute, Yakima, you are showing 18,000 years of low-rez data, and then you tac on a high-rez uptic in the 20th century (so-called "current path").

That isn't only inaccurate and misleading, it's a downright crooked. bounce

But, it doesn't show the highest-rez data available; it smooths out the steepest trends to avoid looking preposterous.

Here is the highest-rez curve available--temperature by the month.



Look at the "current path" now.

Based on the current path as of Feb 2016, we should be hotter than boiling lead by now. affraid

But based on the current path as of June, we should be at the temperature of liquid oxygen by now.

"Current Path" my tuckus. Rolling Eyes
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:43 am

WallyLlama wrote:



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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Oct 09, 2016 10:19 am

I feel sorry for that poor dude that's apologizing, he seems so sad and sincere. Sad

But I wish he'd stop saying "WE were bad." Maybe HE was bad, but the pinhed has one of the smallest lifetime carbon footprints on record.

Anyways, I'd like to cheer him up, so the good news is that NASA.gov says that carbon fertilization doesn't make the earth brown, it makes it greener Very Happy , albeit with some red spots.

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:45 am















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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:47 am



http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-planet-movie-leonardo-dicaprio-938852
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:54 am

Soran wrote:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-planet-movie-leonardo-dicaprio-938852



http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/5876f2aced/don-cheadle-is-captain-planet



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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:32 pm

The sunken Egyptian city of Heracleion. Shocked





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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:13 am

The Original Priam wrote:Heracleion is spoke of in the twin steles of the Decree of Nectanebo I (the first of which is known as the 'Stele of Naukratis'), which specify that one tenth of the taxes on imports passing through the town of Thonis/Herakleion were to be given to the sanctuary of Neith of Sais.
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Fri Nov 04, 2016 9:57 am








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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:58 am

This is important.

Too often the term "anthropogenic global warming" is erroneously equated with fossil fuel emissions.

In fact, there is anthropogenic climate change that has no connection with fossil fuels.

In fact, there are other human activities that might be having a greater effect than fossil fuels:

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/69/11/10.1063/PT.3.3364

By focusing only on greenhouse gases and warming, we diminish our ability to respond to the diversity of human influences on climate and to the effects of natural variability and long-term change. In a 2005 article on NASA’s Earth Observatory website, Gordon Bonan of the National Center for Atmospheric Research framed the issue in no uncertain terms: “Nobody experiences the effect of a half a degree increase in global mean temperature…. Land cover change is as big an influence on regional and local climate and weather as doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide—perhaps even bigger.”

Bonan might also have mentioned that--because the greenhouse contribution of CO2 is now over 87% saturated--doubling CO2 would not have as large an effect as one might think.
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:58 am

But if you're still worried about fossil fuel emissions, watch out for China:

"Coal would still make up more than half of the country’s energy mix by 2020, according to latest plan.

BEIJING—China’s government said it would raise coal power capacity by as much as 20% by 2020, ensuring a continuing strong role for the commodity in the country’s energy sector despite a pledge to bring down pollution levels.

In a new five-year plan for electricity released Monday, the National Energy Administration said it would raise coal-fired power capacity from around 900 gigawatts last year to as high as 1,100 gigawatts by 2020. The roughly 200-gigawatt increase alone is more than the total power capacity of Canada.

By comparison, the agency said it would increase non-fossil fuel sources from about 12% to 15% of the country’s energy mix over the same period. Coal would still make up about 55% of the electricity mix by 2020, down from around two-thirds in recent years.

“This is indeed a disappointing target,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, a campaigner at the environmental group Greenpeace. “Given that there is already severe overcapacity and demand for coal-fired power is going down, we would have expected a cap on coal power capacity much closer to the current capacity level.” "

-- Wall Street Journal
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:32 am




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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:31 am

JackaRoe61 wrote:Are you seriously asking for an answer on this ?
Of course I am.

The IPCC tells us that the carbon footprint of the human race has only been large enough to affect the climate since about 1950. And yet, sea level was so high in the 12th century that the coastline came right up to Harlech Castle in Wales. Before that, around 5500 BC, the Mediterranean rose so high that it broke through the Bosphorus and doubled the size of the Black Sea.

If all these things happened with no contribution from fossil fuels, I think we need to learn more about the causes if we expect to be able to deal with rising sea levels in the future.

JackaRoe61 wrote:Can you tell us what was before holocene ?
Before the Holocene there was the last ice age. Sea level was very low (you could probably have walked to Cuba from Florida) because so much of the Earth's water was frozen into glaciers and the polar icecaps.
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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:31 am

There is concern that the EPA might be in trouble in the next administration. The EPA's own assessments, however, indicate that the effect on atmospheric CO2 and climate change will be negligible--on the order of a few thousands of a degree centigrade.

The EPA has proposed a rule document entitled: "Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles." EPA's analysis concludes that, relative to the reference case (what would happen without these measures), the new rules will have the following effect by 2100:
-- projected atmospheric CO2 concentrations [currently 400 parts per million] are estimated to be reduced by 1.1 to 1.2 parts per million by volume (ppmv),
-- global mean temperature rise is estimated to be reduced by 0.0026 to 0.0065 °C,
-- sea-level rise is projected to be reduced by approximately 0.023 to 0.057 cm.

This doesn't even mean that temperatures will go down by 0.0065 °C, it means that the future global average temperature rise will be 0.0065 °C less than it would have been without the measures. The benefit--even though it's a nationwide measure--will not even be measureable.
_____________________________________________________

The EPA has similarly assessed that the Paris agreement will have a negligible effect.
_____________________________________________________

Perhaps there are other EPA initiatives that have had, or could potentially have, a greater beneficial effect.

If there are such initiatives--and if they are at risk--that's something that should concern us.
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