The UNREAL climate change thread

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:25 am

Here's a surprise--the temperature at the North Pole is now unseasonably cool. Shocked

You know what they say about the planet Earth; "If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes." Cool


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:27 am

A new study finds that changes in land use have been a very important factor driving climate change.

Land use is, of course "anthropogenic," but the study shows that anthropogenic effects are not limited to fossil-fuel emissions.

I know that some will attempt to link the authors to the Koch brothers or other evil-doers, but these authors are actually the modelers for the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which writes the reports from which Secretary Kerry and President Obama extract their talking points on anthropogenic global warming.

Here's the abstract:

Effective radiative forcing from historical land use change

Timothy Andrews, Richard A. Betts, Ben B. B. Booth, Chris D. Jones, Gareth S. Jones

The effective radiative forcing (ERF) from the biogeophysical effects of historical land use change is quantified using the atmospheric component of the Met Office Hadley Centre Earth System model HadGEM2-ES. The global ERF at 2005 relative to 1860 (1700) is −0.4 (−0.5) Wm−2, making it the fourth most important anthropogenic driver of climate change over the historical period (1860–2005) in this model and larger than most other published values. The land use ERF is found to be dominated by increases in the land surface albedo, particularly in North America and Eurasia, and occurs most strongly in the northern hemisphere winter and spring when the effect of unmasking underlying snow, as well as increasing the amount of snow, is at its largest. Increased bare soil fraction enhances the seasonal cycle of atmospheric dust and further enhances the ERF. Clouds are shown to substantially mask the radiative effect of changes in the underlying surface albedo. Coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations forced only with time-varying historical land use change shows substantial global cooling (dT = −0.35 K by 2005) and the climate resistance (ERF/dT = 1.2 Wm−2 K−1) is consistent with the response of the model to increases in CO2 alone. The regional variation in land surface temperature change, in both fixed-SST and coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations, is found to be well correlated with the spatial pattern of the forced change in surface albedo. The forcing-response concept is found to work well for historical land use forcing—at least in our model and when the forcing is quantified by ERF. Our results suggest that land-use changes over the past century may represent a more important driver of historical climate change then previously recognised and an underappreciated source of uncertainty in global forcings and temperature trends over the historical period.

Andrews, T., Betts, R.A., Booth, B.B.B. et al. Clim Dyn (2016). doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3280-7

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:44 am

HadGEM2-ES model? meh

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:25 am

But is it not noteworthy that the modelers are modeling something other than fossil-fuel emissions?

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:02 am


i hope this is just a momentary digression, and does not mean you are joining Club Anthropogenica

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:40 pm

How would an anthropoid get out of Club Anthropogenica?

As el nino fades from memory and la nina takes over, last year's above normal temperatures in the Arctic give way to an early end to this year's short summer:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:49 pm


uh never forget Reichssicherheitshauptamt

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:11 am

This is terrible news, but it had to come out sooner or later.

It turns out that the production of biofuels puts more CO2 into the atmosphere than simply using petroleum does.

Believe, I'm as sorry to hear this as your are. Sad

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1764-4

“The question, ‘How does the overall greenhouse gas emission impact of corn ethanol compare to that of gasoline?’ does not have a scientific answer, ... . What we can say definitively is that, whatever the magnitude of the emissions impact is, it is unambiguously worse than petroleum gasoline.”

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:01 pm


the foliage-kissers have been decrying "The Great Corny Ethanol Scam" for years  

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-ethanol-scam-20110323

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:47 pm

The temperature is warmer now then it was back when to was too cold. geek

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:41 pm


i was so much colder then i'm warmer than that now

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:24 am

The pinhed HATES to be the bearer of bad news--but I must report the truth. Neutral

It turns out that during the "Hottest summer on record" (according to some people) the wheat harvests are going to be breaking records everywhere. Shocked

I'm afraid this might confuse some of the general public, and that they will confused and not know the right thing to think. Crying or Very sad

Extensive planting and benign weather have forced analysts to repeatedly raise crop outlooks. The International Grains Council last week increased its global wheat production forecast to a record 743m tonnes, up 1 per cent from last year. […]

The recent US winter wheat harvest was 45m tonnes, up 21 per cent from 2015, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Merchants who have run out of room in silos are piling wheat outdoors. Storage concerns are also growing in Russia, which is this year set to become the largest wheat exporter after hauling in more than 70m tonnes. In Canada, the government anticipates the second-largest wheat crop in 25 years, of 30.5m tonnes. Australia’s imminent wheat harvest is forecast at 26.5m tonnes, the most in five years.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:38 am

Scientists say the human race stands a good chance of surviving another 15 years (that might be enough for most baby boomers ).

Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050
Keith W. Jaggard*, Aiming Qi and Eric S. Ober
Rothamsted Research, Broom’s Barn Research Centre, Higham, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk, UK

By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO2 concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 28C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world?

CO2 enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more.

Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO2-enriched environ- ment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil- borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most effi- cient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improve- ments in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:18 am



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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:55 am





http://www.si.com/tech-media/2016/09/12/san-francisco-49ers-levis-stadium-faithful-farm

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:35 am

Looks like the Arctic ice cap bottomed out low (below the gray area), but it's not a new record by any means.

It also looks like the refreeze is starting early in the season this year.


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:52 am


sunny geek flower sunny geek flower
sunny geek flower sunny geek flower

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Sat Sep 17, 2016 9:30 am


Chitwood's Chuckles
by Lenny Chitwood
Viernes

Climate change is happening. That’s a fact. The science is sound, and in July we just had the hottest month ever on record. Sea levels are rising like the dickens, ice is melting willy-nilly, and cray-cray weather patterns are becoming more and more frequent. It’s no coincidence that we’re seeing more news reports of just horrible flooding and mean tornadoes at kooky times of the year. So yes, climate change is happening and it’s totally terrifying. But what is there to be done about it? That’s one of the central questions of the documentary Before the Flood, which is directed by Oscar-winning The Cove helmer Fish Stevens and produced by Leonardo DiCaprio. DiCaprio doesn’t simply pop in and out of the documentary at his convenience—he’s in nearly every scene, speaking with some of the world’s top scientists and the individuals that have the power to do something about climate change, from President Barry Obama to Dr. Pope Francis.

Before the Flood is very much an educational and advocacy documentary. It’s a 'Cliffs Notes' version of what’s happening to the world we live in, what’s going to happen to the world we live in, and what we can do to prevent the worst possible outcome. In that respect, it’s kind of like a less boring version of The Inconventient Turth with some high-profile interviews.

The first question you’re probably asking is what the heck is Leonardo DiCaprio doing making a documentary about climate change? That question is addressed at the very beginning of the film, as DiCaprio is appointed U.N. Messenger of Peace and then, through voiceover, wonders if he’s the right man for the job given his lack of science background and pessimistic worldview. This smashes right into a collection of clips from news reports (most from Fox News) lambasting DiCaprio’s involvement in the U.N. and climate change advocacy. Indeed, Before the Flood knows it’s more than a little ridiculous that an award-winning actor is the one leading this climate change documentary, but it also proves that DiCaprio’s heart is in the right place.

It’s immediately clear that the performer is passionate about climate change, and DiCaprio’s “Hollywood actor” status is put to groovy use as he frequently plays the layman opposite the many experts he interviews in the documentary. DiCaprio serves as a stand-in for those that might not know too much about climate change, asking pointed questions that tee up the various experts to drop mad copious buckets of knowledge, sometimes shocking, oftentimes troubling.

Before the Flood covers most all of the bases. The influence of corporate money into politics is touched on, and DiCaprio travels the globe to see how other countries like China and India are handling climate change, and getting a first-hand account of the effects of climate change on communities that could very well be a preview of much worse things to come. We see first-hand how Greenland’s melting ice is causing a change in color of its terrain, which in turn no longer reflects the sun but absorbs it, becoming a heat creator instead of reflector. And we see how Miami Beach, Florida is having to literally raise the elevation of its roads to combat rising ocean waters.

The film even highlights specific changes citizens can make that are as simple as changing one’s diet. The farts produced from the cattle industry are a massive polluter, but if citizens simply excised eating beef from their diet, a significant portion of fart pollution would be quelled.



Last edited by Yakima Canutt on Sat Sep 17, 2016 11:11 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Sat Sep 17, 2016 10:01 am


the major venue that is saving our planet

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/08/technology/levis-stadium-rooftop-farm/index.html

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:50 am

"The EPA can, therefore, establish a performance standard that is not achievable."

-- EX PARTE COMMUNICATIONS & OUTSOURCING EPA’S “AGENCY EXPERTISE”: THE CASE FOR VACATING EPA’s GHG RULES DUE TO AN INCOMPLETE DOCKET & ABANDONMENT OF ANY “DEFERENCE” BASED ON A PRESUMPTION OF EXPERTISE OR IMPARTIALITY

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:27 am






















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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:50 am





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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:27 am

^
I was considering posting that cartoon myself, but then I figured: “Let’s just wait until Yakima posts it!”

I have no doubt that you already know what’s wrong with that cartoon—it’s that the record before the year 1976 is all bogus (1976 is the year of the first global temperature estimates based on satellite data).

There were thermometers in the 19th century, but any claims of average global temperature estimates are make-believe. Rolling Eyes

The cartoon uses the global temperature reconstruction first published in Shaun Marcott’s PhD thesis.  Shaun used 72 historic proxy-data sets, which he believes correlate with temperatures in certain regions, but they have low time resolution.

He combined the 72 data sets together using Monte-Carlo simulation, and came up with a 11,000-year global average temperature record that he acknowledges “cannot detect any any temperature variations on time scales less than 300 years.” He says that about half of the variation on time scales of 500 years is detected, and 100% of the variation on time scales of 2000 years is detected.

See what that means? All of the past temperature spikes occurring from one century to the next have been COMPLETELY FLATTENED OUT.

Of what temperature spikes does the pinned speak? These, for example:



Why does that reconstruction look so spiky, when Shaun’s reconstruction is almost a straight line? Because the spiky curve uses relatively high-time-resolution data from the Greenland ice cores.

I know what you’re about to say: “But, pinhed—the Greenland ice cores only show the temps in the Greenland region—Shaun’s curve shows GLOBAL AVERAGE.”

Yeabut, it shows GLOBAL AVERAGE WITH ALL THE SPIKES FLATTENED OUT.” What good is that? It looks like the temperatures never spiked before — and that’s what’s BOGUS. bounce

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:30 am









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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:36 am

pinhedz wrote:^
I was considering posting that cartoon myself, but then I figured: “Let’s just wait until Yakima posts it!”

Right, because I've posted countless climate cartoons before ... oh wait, I haven't.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

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