The UNREAL climate change thread

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:07 am

Breaking news--the North Pole is cold.

It almost hit minus 90. Shocked [The gray line is the normal (1979-2010 average) temperature curve:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:15 am









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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:55 am

It's a great day to get caught up with the climate.

There is a new study on the anticipated collapse of the gulf stream, which would lead to the realization of James Hanson's prediction that New York harbor will be ice-bound while the ocean will boil at the equator:

Melting Greenland ice sheet may affect global ocean circulation, future climate

University of South Florida and international scientists find influx of freshwater could disrupt the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important component of global ocean circulation

TAMPA, Fla. (Jan. 22, 2016) – Scientists from the University of South Florida, along with colleagues in Canada and the Netherlands, have determined that the influx of fresh water from the Greenland ice sheet is “freshening” the North Atlantic Ocean and could disrupt the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), an important component of global ocean circulation that could have a global effect. Researchers say it could impact the future climate in places such as portions of Europe and North America."


The full story is here: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160122122629.htm



There is hope, however, because NASA says that scenario is not really happening, if anything, the gulf stream is healthier than ever:




NASA Study Finds Atlantic 'Conveyor Belt' Not Slowing
03.25.10, PASADENA, Calif.

New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps regulate climate around the North Atlantic, show no significant slowing over the past 15 years. The data suggest the circulation may have even sped up slightly in the recent past.


Full story here: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.html


Good news is always the best news. Very Happy

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  woo on Sun Jan 24, 2016 5:38 am

Yakima Canutt wrote:















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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:13 am

An astute observation is often made by scientists who think in geologic time instead of thinking in decades--they point out that it is inaccurate to refer to the glaciation cycles Earth has been experiencing over the last 450,000 years as individual "ice ages."

By their terminology the Earth has been in one continuous ice age for the last 5 million years, and the periodic glaciation/interglacial cycles are just minor perturbations (those black squiggles near zero on the time scale), because the temperatures stay 10-12 degrees below what they were at the peak of the Cenozoic era.

It is interesting that mammals first appeared during the Cenozoic era, when there was no ice anywhere on Earth.


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  woo on Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:07 am

I will tell ya what is unreal, my man... John Denver was a Satanist!














I am going to burn all my John Denver records, I tell ya!  Oh wait, I don't own any John Denver records. Well just as soon as I get the urge to, I am gonna run out and buy all of John Denver's records and then promptly burn them all in a fiery pit while I dance around it naked...covered in ash of course.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:48 am

^
I don't mean to muddy the waters, but there is one school of thought that contends John Denver died because his plane ran out of gas.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  woo on Tue Jan 26, 2016 9:11 am

pinhedz wrote:^
I don't mean to muddy the waters, but there is one school of thought that contends John Denver died because his plane ran out of gas.









i hear in my head that another school says Anton Levay had him killed...mansfield too.





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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:52 am

Joe McGregor (University of Texas, Austin) and William Colgan (York University’s Lassonde School of Engineering) have published an interesting study of Greenland’s ice sheet in the Feb. 5th issue of Science magazine.

They’ve found that, compared to the average over the last 9,000 years, Greenland’s ice is flowing outward faster and melting around the edges, but in the interior it is actually flowing slower and building up.

This was unexpected. Shocked

Part of the explanation (according to Colgan) is that ice that formed from snow that fell in Greenland during the last ice age is about three times softer than the ice being formed today.  Because of this difference, the ice sheet is slowly becoming stiffer. As a consequence, the ice sheet is flowing more slowly and getting thicker over time. This effect is most important in southern Greenland, where higher snowfall rates have led to rapid replacement of ice from the last glacial period with more modern Holocene ice.

The left image below shows the average outward rate of flow of the ice over the last 9,000 years. The center image shows the modern-day flow rate. The right image shows the difference (blue indicates negative change—i.e., slowing).



The good news is that as long as the melting continues around the edges, the resurgence of Greenlandic agriculture can continue.

Now they are growing not only potatoes and cabbage, but also tomatoes and even strawberries. Very Happy

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:49 am

I am beginning to think that quoting William Colgan might have been an error in judgement on my part.

From further reading, I have found out that he is a crackpot (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/melting-greenland-ice-changing-ocean-circulation-earth-s-gravitational-field-1.3437904).

Among other things, he spouts this nonsense:

"Actually close to Greenland, sea level rise is negative, or sea level is dropping, in part because the gravitational field is weakening so quickly that the water in the ocean is migrating to more gravitationally massive places on Earth."
Colgan said the sea level has been decreasing in Frobisher Bay at around one centimetre per year, an effect that can be as damaging as sea level rise.
"Iqaluit will not be flooded out by rising sea level but to have the harbour in Iqaluit, which is already really shallow, get shallower at one centimetre per year going forward, that can also be a very damaging sequence of sea level change," he said.

I think we all know that the reason sea level is falling around Greenland is because the land is rising--not because the gravitation pull is decreasing so that the water moves south. :?

And after all the panic about rising sea levels, are we now supposed to panic when sea level drops? Shocked

Apologies to all parties whom I may have inadvertently mislead into taking William Colgan seriously. Neutral

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Feb 17, 2016 9:45 am

Good news for global drylands—they’re getting greener. Smile

The IPCC had already concluded several years ago that crop yields are increasing due to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. They also project that that this trend will continue for the time being (until it gets too hot).

But now there is a new study that concludes “global drylands” are becoming greener because the rising CO2 concentrations.

The study, entitled Elevated CO2 as a driver of global dryland greening was just published in the journal Scientific Reports 6, Article number: 20716 (2016).
The authors are Lixin Wang, assistant professor of earth sciences in the School of Science at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, and a Ph.D. student in Wang’s group, Xuefei Lu.

I believe these authors are free of conservative bias, because they make a point of underlining the potential downsides of prolonged greenhouse warming and the growth of invasive plant species.

You can read the whole story here: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep20716


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:20 am




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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:17 am

One of the most intimidating topics in climate science is the problem of assessing GLOBAL average temperature (it isn’t intimidating to everyone, but it is to conscientious scientists).

The truth is that every cubic foot of air over the surface of the Earth—from surface level up to 100,000 feet—is at a different temperature.

Take a look at the difference 33 meters of elevation makes in Hawaii:



Average that, if you dare—and that’s at just one location on the planet.

So, it should come as no surprise that the various government agencies and academic institutions that track global average temperature can’t agree within 1/5 of a degree—even though their estimates tell us what the temperature is within 1/100th of a degree.

The differences in the estimates by various agencies and institutions are partly due to differing views on where the “atmosphere” is. Is the atmosphere the air within two meters of the pavement, sidewalk, tarmac or air conditioner exhaust vents? Does it matter that most ground sensors are in big cities? Or is the atmosphere ten thousand feet above ground level, where the greenhouse effect manifests itself?

Some institutions swear by the lower-troposphere measurements, while others use ground sensors only.

Nonetheless, most of the estimates still show 1998 as the hottest year since the beginning of the satellite era (the satellite era began in 1978, so the declarations of “hottest year of all time” are not looking at the medieval period, the Roman era, or 5500 BC, when the Black Sea flooded Noah’s known world).



And no one really looks at the error brackets/uncertainty range, do they (how could they, when the graph doesn't even show it)?

Among the data sets used to estimate global temperature, the President’s own NOAA stands out. Not only does it show 2015 was the warmest year ever, it claims no slowdown in global warming:



The caption correctly notes that the graph shows “corrected" global temperatures. The NOAA assesses that actual instrument readings can’t be trusted, so they have adjusted the recent readings upward. It also uses computer models to produce temperature estimates at locations where there are no sensor readings.

The NOAA graph speaks for the current US administration, and it is the one most often shown by media outlets.

As the NOAA says (with all sincerity): “We’re from the US gub’mint, and we’re here to help.”

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Mar 02, 2016 4:26 am

Here’s the latest on the progress of solar cycle #24.

Scientists are waiting to see what the effect on climate will be in the long term (the effect on temperature won’t be immediate; the Earth is like a thanksgiving turkey—it takes a long time to heat and a long time to cool).

It could be 2040 or 2050 before we feel the effects of this century’s solar minimum.

These graphs are from the NOAA, so they are not only free of conservative bias, they have the current administration’s stamp of approval:





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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:54 am

This graph by itself is not very edifying (sorry about that), but what it says is the following:

From 1974 to 1987, the atmosphere was warming at the rate of 2 degrees per century,

From 1987 to 2000, the atmosphere was warming at the rate of 1.5 degrees per century,

From 2000 to 2013, the atmosphere was warming at the rate of 0.5 degrees per century.

That’s a bit puzzling, considering that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is increasing faster and faster—not slower and slower:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Mar 18, 2016 8:41 pm

Good news from the National Oceanographic and Atmospherics Agency (NOAA) -- warmer weather might not be increasing the frequency of extreme weather events:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Mar 18, 2016 8:43 pm

The finding that plants actually do well in warm weather (and in greenhouses) seems to be problematic to some parties (although I'm not sure why it should be), even though it is recognized by climate scientists.

This paper is from "Nature" magazine -- which is at the opposite pole from conservative bias:

Boreal and temperate trees show strong acclimation of respiration to warming

• Peter B. Reich, Kerrie M. Sendall, Artur Stefanski, Xiaorong Wei, Roy L. Rich & Rebecca A. Montgomery

Nature (2016) doi:10.1038/nature17142

Plant respiration results in an annual flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere that is six times as large as that due to the emissions from fossil fuel burning, so changes in either will impact future climate. As plant respiration responds positively to temperature, a warming world may result in additional respiratory CO2 release, and hence further atmospheric warming. Plant respiration can acclimate to altered temperatures, however, weakening the positive feedback of plant respiration to rising global air temperature, but a lack of evidence on long-term (weeks to years) acclimation to climate warming in field settings currently hinders realistic predictions of respiratory release of CO2 under future climatic conditions. Here we demonstrate strong acclimation of leaf respiration to both experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation for juveniles of ten North American tree species growing for several years in forest conditions. Plants grown and measured at 3.4 °C above ambient temperature increased leaf respiration by an average of 5% compared to plants grown and measured at ambient temperature; without acclimation, these increases would have been 23%. Thus, acclimation eliminated 80% of the expected increase in leaf respiration of non-acclimated plants. Acclimation of leaf respiration per degree temperature change was similar for experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation. Moreover, the observed increase in leaf respiration per degree increase in temperature was less than half as large as the average reported for previous studies, which were conducted largely over shorter time scales in laboratory settings. If such dampening effects of leaf thermal acclimation occur generally, the increase in respiration rates of terrestrial plants in response to climate warming may be less than predicted, and thus may not raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations as much as anticipated.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:34 am

Update on the Arctic ice situation. In 2007 and 2012, there were fears that the Arctic ice had gone into a “death spiral.”

Right now it’s 1.3 million sq. km below “normal” (normal means the 1976-2010 average).

Since normal is about 12 million sq. km., the current coverage is down by a little more than 10%.



The Russians (who only care about profit) are looking forward to an ice-free Arctic circle (they were bitterly disappointed when the ice came back from the 2007 and 2012 death spirals).

But what would happen to the polar bears?

Here is a map of the normal polar bear habitat—which suggests that sometimes they venture out onto the ice (although it's not their favorite habitat.

It’s good to know they’ll still have some terra firma after the ice is all gone:

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Tue Mar 22, 2016 10:27 am



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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Apr 28, 2016 3:01 pm

NASA’s Goddard Space Center reports some very good news about the greening of our planet. The findings of a major study have just been published:

“An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries led the effort, which involved using satellite data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments to help determine the leaf area index, or amount of leaf cover, over the planet’s vegetated regions. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees equivalent in area two times the continental United States.”

The abstract of the study published in “Nature Climate Change” can be read here: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3004.html

To some it might come as a surprise that atmospheric CO2 and global warming are both contributors to the greening trend:

“… CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau.


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  Yakima Canutt on Mon May 02, 2016 11:36 am





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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Tue May 03, 2016 3:57 pm

The Norwegians are puzzling over the current trend in the Global monthly heat content anomaly (GJ/m2) in the uppermost 700 m of the North Atlantic (60-0W, 30-65N). The thin line indicates monthly values, and the thick line represents the simple running 37 month (c. 3 year) average. Data source: National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC).


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sat May 07, 2016 11:37 pm

Not an easy read, but this could be important.
Clouds reflect the sun’s radiation and inhibit the absorption of energy by dark surfaces—like the ocean. Changes in the location and abundance with clouds need to be taken into account by climate models

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068242/abstract

Abstract
"We investigate the interannual relationship among clouds, their radiative effects, and two key indices of the atmospheric circulation: the latitudinal positions of the Hadley cell edge and the midlatitude jet. From reanalysis data and satellite observations, we find a clear and consistent relationship between the width of the Hadley cell and the high cloud field, statistically significant in nearly all regions and seasons. In contrast, shifts of the midlatitude jet correlate significantly with high cloud shifts only in the North Atlantic region during the winter season. While in that region and season poleward high cloud shifts are associated with shortwave radiative warming, over the Southern Oceans during all seasons they are associated with shortwave radiative cooling. Finally, a trend analysis reveals that poleward high cloud shifts observed over the 1983–2009 period are more likely related to Hadley cell expansion, rather than poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets."

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun May 15, 2016 10:23 am

The Unreal Science just keeps coming in. It turns out the the annual sunspot count has been creeping up for over 200 years, and we only just noticed because the numbers jump around so much: geek


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun May 15, 2016 10:25 am

but, now that El Nino is done, the rest of 2016 is about to get very cold.




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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

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