The UNREAL climate change thread

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The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:39 pm

Here we go--the graph that knows how many months there are in a year:




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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:15 am

Yes--it looked like nearly a straight line with a wiggle for each year.

This one might be better, because it's easier to see that it isn't really so straight.

The annual squiggle is due to seasonal warming and cooling of the ocean--warm water gives off CO2, so there is a spike in atmospheric CO2 every summer.


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:17 am

The point of that graph is that the temperature trend is not following the CO2 trend at all since 1998.


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:40 am

This one is interesting--over a longer time scale you can see temperature correlating (roughly) with both solar activity and CO2 concentration. But for the last 10 or 12 years solar activity and CO2 concentration have been moving in the opposite direction, and the temperature trend is in between.



One interpretation (and it might be mine) is that temperature has been rising because we are still coming out of the little ice age--but the gradual rise has some peaks and valleys overlaid on it because of the peaks and valleys in solar activity.

And CO2 has also been rising since the end of the little ice age, because both summers and winters have been getting warmer and making the oceans warmer year around, thus--annual fluctuations notwithstanding--there is an overall increase in emission of CO2 from broad ocean areas.

The newest wrinkle is that CO2 concentration is rising even when temperature is not--that means not all of the atmospheric CO2 is coming from the oceans--there is enough of it coming from other sources to make the CO2 not follow the temperature trend.

But this also shows that temperature does not follow the CO2 trend--the temperature is evidently more affected by solar activity and ice-age cycles.

I've got a powerful hunch that our 10,000 years of warm weather is about over, and the next ice age is nearly upon us (it probably won't get our generation, tho).

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sat Apr 16, 2011 3:57 am

Audreyfan from Windsor Canada jumped ship last year (maybe she had to hit the books)

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Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:23 pm

pinhedz wrote:I can't help noticing that each cold snap is worse than the last--the next one might cover Canada with ice (except, of course, for the parts south of Detroit).
Ha ha!

But yes, this is something I've noticed too. The days seem like they're getting colder and colder. But these things are expected where I live. Actually this afternoon after school, while walking through cold then colder then a lot colder and snappier gusts of wind.....I decided to get some ice cream! Laughing Only in Canada can a Baskin-Robins be packed with people in the middle of winter!

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During WWII Winston Churchill visited Russia (where there were many ice cream stands--all outdoor). He saw people standing in line outside to buy the ice cream (it's one of the few things that were really good in Soviet Russia--the other two were bread and Stoli).

Churchill's comment on this phenomenon was: "These people will never be conquered!"

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Apr 18, 2011 12:46 pm

Here's the current ice situation--it had been less than 2007, but now here's more ice:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun May 15, 2011 11:19 pm

Latest from UAH--up to +0.12 degrees above the 1981-2010 average.

Whether this is just jitter or the cooling trend has bottomed out remains to be seen, but so far 2011 looks a lot like 1983:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sun May 15, 2011 11:23 pm

Interesting article in the Washington Post about Mrs. Clinton's visit to Greenland.

She tried to deliver her message about the perils of climate change, but it turns out that Greenlanders think warmer is better (big surprise). They all know it was much warmer back when Eric the Red settled the place for cattle ranching.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:12 pm

Just when we've been enjoying cool weather (May was about like April--see above), bad news comes:



Here is what the web-talkers have to say about that:

"NASA is calling the flare medium-sized and the biggest one seen in the last five years, but it's nothing compared to something called the "Carrington Event" in 1859, a huge solar flare that set telegraph machines on fire and produced an auroral glow in many parts of the world bright enough to read by. Even when telegraph operators disconnected their batteries, "aurora-induced electric currents in the wires still allowed messages to be transmitted," according to a NASA historical account."

"Solar weather runs in cycles, and the current cycle is expected to peak in 2013, and it's during that time that we're most likely to see something like the Carrington Event. Only problem is that if such an event happened today, it would cause much, much more damage than it did in the 19th century."

" 'The sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to see much higher levels of solar activity,' Richard Fisher, head of NASA's Heliophysics Division, said last year. 'At the same time, our technological society has developed an unprecedented sensitivity to solar storms.' "

"Basically, if the sun were to send a massive shipment of electromagnetic radiation our way, it could knock out the backbone of our digital civilization, taking power grids, satellites and other communications systems offline for hours, possibly even days. There's also the possibility for damage to that infrastructure that could run into the trillions of dollars."


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Jul 08, 2011 10:43 pm

Headed back up in June--0.31 degrees above the 1979-2010 average.

Is it because of the huge solar events, or is it because the price of gas dropped back down below $4.00/gal again?


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  eddie on Sat Jul 09, 2011 6:14 pm

For as long as I can remember we've almost always had rain in London over the Summer months, but over the past few years it's been a different kind of rain:

Short, violent, 'tropical' downpours.


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  eddie on Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:14 pm

The God Species by Mark Lynas - review

A brave look at the environment

Peter Forbes guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 20 July 2011 10.00 BST


Drought-hit northern Kenya. Photograph: Stephen Morrison/EPA

The political and environmental profile of climate change has been dramatically reconfigured in the past two years. A wave of activism has dissipated and a broad consensus on the necessary measures broken thanks to the failed Copenhagen summit and the anti-global-warming lobby's apparent triumph in the Climategate emails affair. Mark Lynas is one of a growing band of influential figures, along with James Lovelock, Stewart Brand and George Monbiot, who now argue that the approach of most Greens to climate change needs to change.


The God Species: How the Planet Can Survive the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas

Lynas puts it briskly in this new book. "Gobal warming is not about overconsumption, morality, ideology or capitalism. It is largely the result of human beings generating energy by burning hydrocarbons and coal." Inevitably, the beliefs of most environmentalists involve a cluster of other goals and ideological imperatives but if some of these are inimical to the need to reduce carbon emissions then, Lynas believes, a decoupling is necessary.

Environmentalists, of course, do want to address global warming: Lynas's other target is the rather large constituency who feel the need to deny it altogether. I'm sure he's right when he divines a reason for the deniers' PR successes: "They tap into a powerful cultural undercurrent that insists we are small and the planet is big, ergo nothing we do – not even in our collective billions – can have a planet-scale impact." Later in the book he gives an excellent refutation of this in the example of Thomas Midgley, who single-handedly almost roasted the entire human race and rendered them brain-damaged. Midgley invented the refrigerants and aerosol propellants (CFCs) that began to eat the ozone layer and was also (this isn't mentioned in The God Species) a key developer of the lead tetraethyl additive for petrol. Lynas goes on to commend the 1987 Montreal Protocol on CFCs as an exemplar of the kind of international action we need on climate change.

He is level-headed about issues that have become intensely emotive, and recognises that the debate around climate change has become polarised on political grounds: libertarians with little understanding of science don't want to acknowledge that there are natural limits to human activity. They then feel free to equate the climate agenda with "socialism by the backdoor". But of course there really are natural limits, in the form of the great natural cycles: carbon, nitrogen, water, and so on.

Many human problems have too many contributory factors to allow cause to be unambiguously linked to effect, but Lynas is surely right that global warming is not one of them. The complexities only emerge in deciding exactly what mix of energy sources will best meet the target of reduced CO2 emissions, and how to fund it. Lynas's first wake-up call came when he became adviser on climate change to the low-lying Maldive Islands. As Dr Johnson might have put it: "When the Maldive Islands are sinking beneath the waves, it concentrates a man's mind wonderfully."

A second wake-up call came at a meeting in Sweden in 2009 when he encountered the Planetary Boundaries Group. This is a body of experts that is campaigning for the recognition that there are nine critical planetary limits. Lynas's purpose in this book is to explain and popularise this concept.

The nine boundaries are: climate change, biodiversity loss, biogeochemical cycles (such as nitrogen and phosphorous), ocean acidification, water consumption, land use, ozone depletion, atmospheric particulate pollution, and chemical pollution. Of these, the group believes that the first three have already passed the planet's limit, the next four haven't, and the last two have not yet been quantified.

It's certainly a useful concept for the kind of planetary management that Lynas believes is now necessary. He is wonderfully sane and cogent on difficult issues, explaining why organic farming is not an option globally and why we need genetically engineered crops. The natural limit to food production is set by nitrogen which, in a form usable by plants, is rare in nature. We owe our present 6.9bn population to the 100-year-old Haber-Bosch process of nitrogen fixation to produce fertilisers. Take that away and the current population is already twice the Earth's carrying capacity. Our best hope for the future is to genetically engineer a nitrogen-fixing plant (the green kind) to replace nitrogen-fixing plant (the heavy industrial kind).

Lynas bravely recounts how, as recently as 2008, he took part in anti-GM activism, which he now attributes to "mass hysteria". He had read not a single scientific paper on the subject until, following negative comments made online after an article he had written in this newspaper, he looked at the evidence and changed his mind. He has written the clearest exposition so far of the choices facing us. We may wince at the book's title (it derives from Stewart Brand's remark: "We are as gods and have to get good at it"), but Lynas is not playing God, simply making a passionate pitch for good global resource management.

Peter Forbes's Dazzled and Deceived: Mimicry and Camouflage (Yale) won the 2011 Warwick prize for writing.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sat Aug 20, 2011 4:26 am

According to Chris D. Thomas at the University of York, various cool-weather-loving critters and plants during the 20th century steadily moved to higher altitudes (36 feet per decade, on average) and higher latitudes (10 miles per decade, on average) in search of cooler climes.

This is a cause for distress, or evidence of the adaptability of supposedly dumb critters?

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sat Aug 20, 2011 2:31 pm


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Sep 08, 2011 2:19 am

Slight temperature drop in August


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:05 am

As for the ice up north, very close to 2007. Not good -- if you like ice:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:11 am

As usual, the Antarctic tries to compensate:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:43 pm

Here's a surprise--now the ice is making a strong comeback at both poles simultaneously--shattering the pinhedz theory. Shocked

pinhedz wrote:As usual, the Antarctic tries to compensate:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Oct 06, 2011 4:23 am

Not much action here, but another small notch downward:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Fri Nov 04, 2011 2:43 am

Update for October--down again, but still 0.11 degrees above the line:


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  eddie on Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:34 pm

Today's METRO informs me that an iceberg the size of a small country is about to detach itself from the Antarctic ice-cap. Is this something I should be concerned about?

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:02 am


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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  eddie on Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:20 am

^

Just a red cross in a box, then. Nothing too alarming.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Sat Nov 05, 2011 3:09 am

No polar bear? scratch

This new ice island will be about the size of Manhattan (small compared to the original Peterman ice island before it shrank).

There was a bigger one that broke off in 2001, but it grew back.

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Re: The UNREAL climate change thread

Post  pinhedz on Thu Nov 10, 2011 9:33 am

Should we believe Donna La Framboise, or is she just another advocate for some interest group's agenda? Should believe anybody?

Fun fact:
Al Gore got all the material for his hit propaganda film "An Inconvenient Truth" from the IPCC, but he went even beyond the IPCC in predicting that Greenland would melt.


by Donna Laframboise---the author of the newly-published IPCC exposé The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World's Top Climate Expert.

"Most people have never heard of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but it performs one of the most important jobs in the world. It surveys the scientific literature, decides what it all means, and writes a report informally known as the "Climate Bible." "

"That "Bible" is cited by governments everywhere. It is the reason carbon taxes are being introduced, heating bills are rising, and costly new regulations are being imposed."

"According to John Holdren, President Obama's science advisor, the IPCC is the source of the "most important conclusions" about climate change. It's chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, says that "all rational persons" should be persuaded by his organization's findings."

"The IPCC has been around for 22 years and has been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize. And yet my newly published book is the first time anyone has taken a close, critical look at this organization. After two years of research, I've discovered that almost nothing we've been told about the IPCC is actually true. Rather than being written by a meticulous, upstanding professional in business attire, it turns out the Climate Bible is being produced by a slapdash, rule-breaking, not-to-be-trusted teenager."

"For example, in the grown-up world, whenever important decisions and large amounts of money are involved conflict-of-interest mechanisms are firmly in place. Lawyers, accountants, politicians, and many others are subject to these rules as a matter-of-course. People who expect to be trusted by the public adopted them long ago."

"Yet even though the IPCC evaluates matters in which trillions of dollars are at stake, well into the 21st century it saw no need to even discuss conflict-of-interest. This organization is so arrogant, so used to being praised and admired, that its leaders failed to take the most ordinary of precautions."

"Alas, this is only one of many troubling signs. In 2009 Pachauri assured a US Senate committee that his organization mobilizes "the best talent available across the world." On other occasions he has insisted that IPCC authors are at the top of their profession and are chosen for their impressive track records."

"But as anyone who does a little math can discover for themselves, the IPCC has been relying on the expert judgment of 20-something graduate students for years."

"In one instance, a young man who hadn't even acquired his Masters degree was recruited to be a lead author. In another, a woman 16 years away from completing her doctorate (and three years from the publication of her first academic paper) was one of only 21 people in the entire world selected by the IPCC to write about climate change and human health."

"But why stop at students when you can recruit brazen activists, as well? Richard Moss has been involved with the IPCC for nearly two decades. During part of that time he was on the World Wildlife Fund's payroll – as a vice president, no less."

"Richard Hare is considered a Greenpeace "legend." He has been one of its spokespeople since 1992 and was its chief climate negotiator in 2007. None of this prevented him from being admitted to the IPCC's inner circle. In 2007, Hare was one of only 40 people on the "core writing team" for the overall, big-picture IPCC summary known as the Synthesis Report."

"Chairman Pachauri has further insisted that the IPCC bases its reports solely, only, and exclusively on research that has been published in peer-reviewed academic journals. In testimony before U.S. lawmakers he has said that the IPCC doesn't "settle for anything less." He has further declared that non-peer-reviewed material should be tossed "into the dustbin." "

"Yet it turns out that one in three sources relied on by the IPCC's landmark 2007 report didn't come within a mile of a peer-reviewed journal. Or, to rephrase that: one third of the sources referenced by the Climate Bible are to material the IPCC's own chairman has said belongs in the trashcan."

"How could he have been so mistaken? How could he have repeatedly made the 100% peer-reviewed claim before he'd personally taken steps to ensure it had actually happened that way?"

"We're told we should trust the judgment of the scientists who write IPCC reports. Yet in an organization in which hundreds of people knew the chairman was traveling the world uttering balderdash, no one apparently took him aside and corrected him."

"I've done my share of investigative reporting. But I've never seen a story like this one. -- No matter what IPCC rock I turn over, I find something scandalous."

Donna Laframboise is the author of the newly-published IPCC exposé The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World's Top Climate Expert.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/11/07/almost-nothing-weve-been-told-about-ipcc-is-actually-true/#ixzz1dFXG63Wa

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